Thursday, May 22, 2008

Lebanese 2008 101

J'ai reçu ce mail mais je ne connais pas l'auteur de ce texte.

How to lose an empire in just 3 years!
OU La stratégie du mensonge, de la duperie, de l’entêtement, de l'ignorance. de l'arrogance et de l'aveuglement (Faut être fort pour réunir tout ça).

On February 14th 2005, Rafic Hariri was assassinated. The reflex of all Lebanon (even those who were against Hariri’s policies) was to gather around the Hariri Family.

I, a Lebanese Christian Aounist, went there, participated to the funeral. I took my kids, my parents, my friends, even the whole village (on demand of General Aoun) in order to maintain daily visits and presence around “Dari7” (Hariri’s tomb). For months, even if we wanted to dine at a restaurant in Beirut Central District, we used to gather at “Dari7”, make the cross sign, say a little prayer, offer a candle, than go out for dinner. More candles were offered by Christians at “Dari7” than at St Charbel’s tomb! It was an incredible sign of solidarity from different communities.

Hariri’s son Saad was appointed by Hariri Family to inherit Rafic Hariri’s political legacy. He inherited a whole empire: money, media, political party, international connections, international support, public sympathy even among Christians and Chiites, blind support from the Sunnites and Druzes, etc… He had everything to succeed!

How comes that by May 2008, i.e. just 3 years after his father’s assassination, Saad Hariri seems to have lost his empire? Why?!...

Let us remember together what he did wrong:

His first political move was to participate into Mikati’s government alone, without his allies.

Then, he concluded the “2itifak rouba3i” between Hariri + Joumblat + Berry + Nasrallah, leaving the Christians out; although the Christians showed him unparalleled sympathy when his father died. You remember that on the same day of Rafic Hariri’s murder, i.e. on February 14th 2005, Michel Aoun visited Nazik Hariri in Paris.

And in order to conclude this “2itifak rouba3i”, he promised the Chiites to keep and preserve the weapons of Hizballah.

He adopted the 2000 electoral law of Ghazi Kanaan, betraying all what his father promised to the Patriarch and to the Christian community. So instead of building on the sympathy that the Christians showed him, he betrayed them by imposing on them an unjust electoral law. Consequently, he lost Christian support.

Saad Hariri promised the Chiites to keep and preserve the weapons of Hizballah. But at the same time, he promised the USA to get rid of these weapons. So how he would manage to keep these 2 contradictory promises?

Instead of opening a new chapter among Lebanese after the Syrian withdrawal, Saad disappointed the Christians and tried to fool the Chiites. A policy built on short-term gains instead of long-term stability.

Then came the elections. He refused to cooperate with the true representative of the Christian community, i.e. Michel Aoun.

When Aoun won in Jbeil, Ksrouen and Maten, Saad went to the North of Lebanon, stayed there, spent millions of US Dollars and encouraged Sunnite extremism in order to fight Aoun + Frangiyeh. He won the elections in the North; but, at the same time, he made the North a fertile land for Sunnite extremism (Later on, the Lebanese Army will suffer greatly from this climate when it will face Fatih il Islam).

Saad didn’t just fight Michel Aoun: he fought all true representative of the Christian community: Elias Skaff in Zahle, Armenian Tachnaq in Beirut, Sleimen Frangiyeh in the North, etc…

Saad needed a clear majority in the parliament: he took it from the Christians. His so-called majority is constituted mainly from Christian deputies elected by the Sunnites, via the 2000 electoral law of Ghazi Kanaan.

He released Samir Geagea and Ka3eda Terrorists form prison:
• Samir Geagea in order to affront Michel Aoun in Christian areas
• Ka3eda Terrorists in order to fulfill his electoral promises in the North. These same people will fight the Lebanese Army along with Fatih il Islam

Then came the government, Seniora government. Saad again promised to preserve the weapons of Hizballah. He also promised the Chiites that all government decisions will be taken in consensus with them. But Saad again rejected the true representative of the Christians, giving minor ministries to Lebanese Forces and Kataeb..

Then he went to play all kinds of dirty games in Media, distributing money all over the Christian regions in order to assassinate the character of Michel Aoun – in order to discriminate Michel Aoun within the Christian community. You surely remember the articles of Fares Khachan and Nassir el Assaad, the comedy La Yoummal on Future TV, etc...

For 3 years, he refused to cooperate with the Christian President Emile Lahoud. For 3 years, all positions in the Lebanese State (especially the Internal Security Forces) were given to Sunnites and Druzes. The Christians are getting more and more frustrated and angry. He even tried to use the Patriarch as a counter balance to Aoun.

Saad arrested the 4 generals and put them in prison for more than 3 years without any proof linking them to the assassination of his father.

With his tricks and the presumed witnesses (Houssam Houssam, Zouhayr Al Seddik, …), he even discredited the International Investigation in the assassination of his father. The majority of the Lebanese now make jokes about this so-called International Investigation.

Instead of uniting all the Lebanese, Rafic Hariri’s assassination was used to make cheap political gains. So it lost the sacred aspect it had among the majority of Lebanese.

Seniora government failed in all fields, especially in security. A dozen of leaders are assassinated while the government stood helpless.

Then, suddenly, Saad broke his promises to the Shiites: he wanted Hizballah to surrender his arms. So after loosing Christian support, he has now also lost Shiite support. The Shiites withdrew from government and Lebanon was in the middle of a big crisis.

Fearing a civil war like in Iraq, Michel Aoun signed an agreement with Hizballah, an agreement that proposes a solution to Hizballah’s weapons. Both Aoun and Nasrallah invited all Lebanese parties to join this agreement. Instead, Saad fought this agreement accusing Michel Aoun of becoming “Syrian and Iranian” and he went with his media campaign to discredit Aoun among Christians.

Then in 2006 came the war between Israel and Hizballah. The agreement between Aoun and Nasrallah created an internal stability. Meanwhile, the Shiites felt a conspiracy against them from Hariri + Joumblat + Saniora. Just 2 days after the beginning of the war, Hariri wanted to judge Hassan Nasrallah! Then he stole almost all the international aid that came to Lebanon and was supposed to be distributed to the displaced. By now, Hariri lost all kind of support from the Shiites.

He made deals with Nabih Berri, then backed on the deals, then started attacking Nabih Berri and wanted his employee Makary to call for elections without the consent the Head of Parliament, hence over stripping the main Shiites position in the Lebanese state. So he also lost Nabih Berri.

The opposition, although very popular, asked for just a third of the government. Hariri refused. A huge march took place in the heart of Beirut: Hariri + Joumblat + Seniora didn’t even notice!

Then Hariri wanted to have his own military forces in order to make a balance with Hizballah. The same Kanaan Naji who is burning offices today in Tripoli recruited Fati7 el Islam (check the Magazine newspaper) and strengthened them in order to create the Sunni Army in "Bilad el Cham". We all know the results: hundreds of Lebanese soldiers died fighting Sunnite extremism in the North..

Then Saad paid money to bring arms, create security companies (like Security Plus) under the name of the son of Selim Diab. With more than 7000 employees, these security companies quoted to companies for 90$/person/month (i.e. almost free of charge!) just to get the legal cover to his illegal militias. He even created schools in Akar for learning how to become a professional bodyguard!

In 2005, we used to go to Hariri’s tomb willingly. Now Saad is forced to pay money to people to attend the yearly ceremony of 14 February; he distributed Mazout, forced the country to close, put his own people to carry Lebanese Forces flags: just in order to pretend that 1.5 million people answered his call.

Aoun told him in a meeting in Paris: let us make a historical deal between you, Nisrallah and myself; a deal that satisfies all Lebanese communities. Like what happened in 1945 between the Sunnite Riad Solh and the Maronite Bechara EL Khoury. Unfortunately, having spent most of his time in Saudi Arabia, Saad was ignorant of Lebanese history! So he said NO.

Then Aoun withdrew his candidacy to the presidency, but requested a just electoral law – an electoral law long awaited by the Christians. Saad didn’t react positively and insisted on electing a neutral president before reaching an agreement. He forgot that he has lost the confidence of both the Christians and the Shiites who don’t believe him anymore. But he didn’t care as he had the support of USA, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, etc…

Saad is totally ignorant of how Lebanon should be managed: he truly believes that he can disregard both the Christians and the Chiites as long as he enjoys the support of USA, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan. So, he remains completely deaf to the just demands of the Opposition.

What was the result of all the above? The uprising of May 2008!

To conclude:

In 2005, Saad Hariri inherited a whole empire and enjoyed the sympathy of almost all Lebanese. He should have succeeded quite easily. However, due to his ignorance and pride, he thought that he can rule Lebanon as the Saudi King rules Saudi Arabia. But he failed to notice that Lebanon isn’t Saudi Arabia and that he is no king. So he lost his empire in just 3 years!...

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